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4 Jul, 2024 (Thursday)



WH GROUP(288)
Analysis¡G
WH Group is the world`s largest pork food company, holding the top market share in China, the United States, and European markets. It has a complete pork industry chain, including pig farming, fresh pork, pork products, distribution, and sales. With its unique global vertically integrated business platform, the company has established a leading competitive advantage in the pork industry. Its subsidiaries include Shuanghui Investment & Development Co., Ltd., the largest meat processing company in Asia, and Smithfield Foods, the largest pork food company in the United States. the company owns numerous well-known brands, forming a rich product portfolio and a vast market network. From December 2022 to April 2024, the industry`s production capacity has been gradually reduced by 9.2%, with a significant acceleration in Q423. Based on the calculation of the impact of breeding sows on pig output nine months later, it is expected that pig supply will significantly decrease in the second half of the year. Furthermore, due to repeated losses, the industry has become more cautious, and the disruptive impact of factors such as breeding has significantly weakened. With reduced supply and decreased disruptions, it is expected that pork prices will continue to remain above the cost line in the second half of the year, making it easier for prices to rise than to fall. Currently, the industry is on the eve of a new cycle, and there is still significant room for upward growth. The overall profitability of the company is expected to exceed market expectations.
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $5.22, Target Price: $5.80, Cut Loss Price: $4.72



Report Review of June 2024

Sectors:

TMT, Semiconductors, Consumer & Healthcare ¡]Eric Li¡^

TMT, Semiconductors, Consumer, Healthcare (Eric Li)

This month I released reports of Hengan (1044.HK).

For the year ended 31 December 2023 (FY2023), Hengan's revenue increased by 5.1% to RMB23,768mn, above market expectation. During the year, operating profit increased significantly by 38.6% to RMB3,978mn (FY2022: RMB2,869mn). Although the depreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and the HK dollar during the year resulted in an operating foreign exchange loss after tax of RMB150mn, the loss was significantly reduced by about 83.6% compared with the operating FX loss before tax of RMB901mn in 2022. Therefore, profit attributable to shareholders of the Company was RMB2,801mn (FY2022: RMB1,925mn), representing a significant yoy increase of 45.5%. Excluding the operating FX loss after tax, profit attributable to shareholders of the Company increased by 4.3% yoy, mainly reflecting the improvement in the company's gross profit margin as a result of the decline in the cost of wood pulp and upgrades of products. Basic EPS was RMB2.415 (FY2022: RMB1.657), with full-year dividend RMB1.40 per share, unchanged yoy.

During the year under review, raw material prices dropped in the second half of the year, leading to intensified market promotions and price competition. The decline in the price of wood pulp, the main raw material for tissue paper, in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year, coupled with the robust growth in the company's upgraded products and premium product series resulted in a significant improvement in the gross profit of the tissue paper business. FY2023, the company's overall gross profit increased by 4.2% to RMB8,011mn (FY2022:RMB7,689mn). Although the gross profit margin was under pressure in the 1HFY2023, the overall gross profit margin for the full year still recorded at 33.7% (FY2022: 34.0%), almost consistent with last year. Gross profit the 2HFY2023 even significantly improved to 36.5% (2HFY2022: 32.8%). It is expected that in 2024, premium high margin products will continue to experience significant growth, leading to a continuous improvement in the gross profit margin.

Despite a challenging operating environment, Hengan leverages its strong comprehensive competitive advantages and effective profit-focused sales strategies to continue expanding its market share and further solidify its robust business resilience. The company's three core business segments¡Xtissue paper, sanitary napkins, and diapers¡Xhave maintained steady growth in revenue over the past two years. The decline in raw material prices in the second half of last year intensified industry marketing and price competition. However, the company prudently allocated promotional resources and continued to record significant growth in high-end, high-margin products. Gross profit margins are expected to remain stable. Hengan maintains a healthy financial condition with a significant improvement in its debt ratio to 69.8%, placing it in a net cash position.

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