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16 Jan, 2017 (Monday)

            
BOC AVIATION(2588)
Analysis¡G
According to the operational data announced by BOC Aviation (2588), its aircraft utilization maintained at 100% for the year ended 31 December 2016. The Group continues to expand its aircraft fleet. As at 31 December, it had a portfolio of 284 owned and managed aircraft, with an average aircraft age of 3.2 years and an average remaining lease term of 7.3 years for owned aircraft fleet, weighted by net book value. In 2016, it took delivery of 67 aircraft and signed 79 leases. (I do not hold the above stock)
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $38.50, Target Price: $41.00, Cut Loss Price: $37.00

Humanwell Healthcare(600079)
Analysis¡G
Humanwell Healthcare realized revenues of RMB 8.78 billion in the first three quarters, a YoY increase of 26.6%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of parent company stood at RMB 620 million, up by 41.2% over the previous year, which was mainly attributed to the consolidation of EPIC Pharm. After EPIC net profit, acquisition costs and new financial expenses are excluded, the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders of parent company reached RMB 470 million, increasing by 13.6% year-on-year and meeting the company's expectation of about 15% of endogenous growth rate. After successfully acquiring EPIC Pharmaceuticals, Inc. and obtaining the U.S. license for narcotics control and production lines, Humanwell Healthcare started to make major breakthroughs in overseas layout. In the meantime, thanks to the increased sales volume of patented dermatologic medicines and the rise in the profitability of soft capsule orders, the company's international outlook is optimistic. What's more, the company announced that it intends to make a non-public offering of stocks to its major shareholder Wuhan Modern Technology with an issue price of RMB 17.76/share. The raised funds will not exceed RMB 2.8 billion. The fund-raising will improve the company's financial structure, reducing the liability/asset ratio to about 55% and easing financial pressures with the financial costs expected to reduce by more than RMB 100 million.
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: CNY19.04, Target Price: CNY23.00, Cut Loss Price: CNY17.50


Geely (175.HK) - FY16 beat expectation, maintain buy rating

Rapid Growth in Sales Results

In December, Geely Auto's total sales volume rocketed by 101% YoY to 108,230 units, up 6% mom. Among them, domestic sales volume of car soared by 102% YoY to 106,848 units, accounting for a larger proportion of 98.7% of the total sales volume, and export volume reached 1,382 units, up 70% YoY.

Several new models performed well. The sales volume of Geely Boyue reached 20,377 units (exceed 20,000), A+-class sedan model Emgrand GL 10,103 units (exceeding 10,000 again), soared by 66% yoy, and Emgrand EC7 28,539 units, representing a YoY increase of 66%. The high-end model Geely Borui recorded a sales volume of 5,609 units. Emgrand GS sold 10,222 units. The Emgrand series accounted for 60% of the total sales volume, hitting a historical high.

Geely Vision sedan sold 12,028 units, up by around 31% YoY. The sales volume of Vision SUV amounted to 10,527 units. Geely has already had six models sold more than 10,000 units. The SUV model made up more contribution to total sales volume.

In 2016, total sales volume rose by 50% YoY to 765,851 units, exceed 9% of the annual target 700,000 units. The Board set the Group's sales volume target for the year of 2017 at 1,000,000 units, representing an increase of around 31% over 2016.

New Brand LINK&CO Ready to Launch

Geely Auto released its fourth car brand ¡V LYNK & CO in Gothenburg, Sweden in October 2016, and the brand's models will be produced by the CMA platform, jointly developed by Geely and Volvo for three years. New models, positioned between Geely and Volvo, aim at China's most extensive joint-venture brand market. The first 01 concept released at the same time is a middle-class SUV, will debut in China in Q4 of 2017, followed by a sedan CS11, a crossover car CC11 and a hatchback CH11.

We believe the new brand's release marks the official launch of Geely Automobile's advancing strategy, and the follow-up brand management and operation will bring both challenges and opportunities to the company. As the positive effect of acquiring Volvo began to emerge, Geely Auto's overall strength has been elevated to a new high. Coupled with the company's push for the new energy strategy, "Blue Geely", we are optimistic about its steady growth in medium and long term sales. Considering depreciation after new capacity injects, it may take some time to consolidate for the short term.

Soared Management Holding Firms Market Confidence

According to Hong Kong Stock Exchange data, Chairman Li Shufu increased the company's holding by a total of 165.5 million shares in early December, with an average cost of around HKD8.2 per share. The growth rate of his shareholding reached a record high, from 42.98% to 44.45%, easing the market concern for several executives` holding and helping restore investor confidence.

Investment Thesis

The company's whole-year results forecast exceed our expectations, so we lift our forecast EPS for 2016/2017 to RMB0.523/0.774yuan.And therefore we raise the target price to HK$ 9.8, equivalent to 11.4x estimated P/E ratio of 2017. (Closing price as at 12 January 2017)

Financials

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Recommendation on 16-1-2017
RecommendationBUY
Price on Recommendation Date$ 8.120
Suggested purchase priceN/A
Target Price$ 9.800
Writer Info
Zhang Jing
(Research Analyst)
Tel: (+ 86 51699400-103)
Email:
zhangjing@phillip.com.cn

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Phillip Research - Hong Kong ½÷¥ß¬ã¨s³¡ ¡V ­»´ä¤Î¤¤°ê
Company Stock Code Last Update Suggestion Target Price Price on Recom
Information Techology Research Department N/A+852 2277 6527research@phillip.com.hk
O-Net Technologies87727/09/2016No Rating4.02
O-Net communications87726/10/2010BUY7.156
Transportation and Automobiles Zhang Jing (86) 2151699200-103zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
Geely17516/01/2017BUY9.800.000
Weifu000581.CH09/01/2017Buy29.422.95
Insurance Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
Media & Publishing Research Department (+ 86 21 51699400-107)research@phillip.com.cn
Wisdom Sports Group166111/07/2016Buy3.32.18
NetDragon77716/06/2016Buy28.422.9
Pharmaceutical Fan Guohe  (+ 86 21 51699400-110)fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
Tasly Pharmaceutical Group600535.CH13/01/2017Accumulate4640.04
Yunnan Baiyao000538.CH06/01/2017BUY90.673.9
Industrial Goods Ocean Pan +852 2277 6515oceanpan@phillip.com.hk
TK Group228310/01/2017Buy2.82.18
Health & Personal Care Fan Guohe  (+ 86 21 51699400-110)fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma87418/10/2016Buy24.4819.16
Guangzhou Baiyunshan Pharma87417/10/2016Buy24.4819.16
New Energy Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
CONCORD NE18224/10/2016Buy0.60.39
SINGYES SOLA75014/10/2016Buy5.14.12
Food, Beverage and Retail Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
Xinyi Glass86828/12/2016Accumulate7.16.11
361 Degrees136121/12/2016Buy3.823.07
Telecommunications Fan Guohe + (86) 21 51699400-110fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
Chinasoft International35426/10/2016Buy4.863.72
Chinasoft International35425/10/2016Buy4.863.72
Mainland Property Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
China Overseas Land & Investment68812/01/2017Accumulate24.422
Red Star Macalline152822/12/2016Buy9.47.1
Utilities Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
CNTY000035.SZ11/01/2017Buy9.327.68
Beijing SPC00257330/12/2016Buy21.817.3
Software & Service Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
Goldpac Group331518/02/2015N/A4.77
IGG800221/11/2014Accumulate3.953.44
Hotels and Entertainment John Wong (+ 852 2277 6527)johnycwong@phillip.com.hk
Hongkong & Shanghai Hotels4505/01/2017Accumulate9.78.46
Great Eagle Holdings Ltd4129/12/2016Accumulate38.633.65

Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited and/or its affiliates ( the ¡§Group¡¨) believe to be accurate. The Group does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The Group (or its employees) may have interests in relevant investment products. For details of different products¡¦ risks, please view the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk.

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