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Investor Notes - Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
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21 Oct, 2025 (Tuesday)

            
CHINA RES GAS(1193)
Analysis¡G
China Resources Gas fully leverages the channel advantages and user resource advantages of its urban gas main business to develop distributed photovoltaics, distributed energy, and charging business tracks. It continuously enhances its comprehensive energy solution capabilities, building a comprehensive energy business with China Resources Gas characteristics. In the first half of this year, it newly signed 71 distributed photovoltaic projects with an expected installed capacity of 63MW, 35 distributed energy projects with an expected installed capacity of 127MW, and 107 traffic charging projects with an expected installed capacity of 109MW.
The Group also focuses on the Hong Kong traffic charging market, accelerating the development of traffic charging business, deploying all-liquid-cooled super charging stations, and promoting super charging and integrated photovoltaic-storage-charging applications. As of the first half of 2025, it has invested in 15 charging projects in Hong Kong, of which 6 are already operational and 9 are under construction.
In its urban gas main business, the Group newly developed 831,000 residential users in the first half of the year, including 667,000 new housing connection users and 164,000 old housing connection users. On the other hand, while promoting the enhancement of resource acquisition capabilities, the Group further improves its supply guarantee capabilities. In terms of enhancing gas source coordination capabilities, in the first half of this year, the coordinated scale exceeded 3.5 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 100%, acquiring 200 million cubic meters of unconventional resources. In terms of enhancing gas source assurance capabilities, storage capacity has been increased to 3.75%.
Inits Comprehensive Service Business, the Group continues to promote a brand-new customer service model, deeply implementing grid management, which currently covers 41.85 million users. It focuses on building ¡§Gas Butler¡¨ services, transforming customer business handling from service halls to door-to-door services provided by Gas Butlers. The enterprise WeChat has 26.9 million online users, with each Gas Butler becoming a ¡§mobile store¡¨ for comprehensive services, creating the ¡§¡¥one million shops in one hundred cities¡¨ model characteristic of China Resources Gas comprehensive services. Based on high-quality products and services, it enriches marketing methods for comprehensive service products: online, it builds the CR Gas best selection online store, it revitalizes service centres, expands the scope of brand cooperation, and creates a comprehensive service product ecosystem, providing users with high-quality services and high-quality products. The Group believes that through continuous and in-depth promotion, the comprehensive service business still has huge development potential in the future and will become an important component of its business. (I personally do not hold the above stock)
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $21.00, Target Price: $23.50, Cut Loss Price: $20.00


CALC(1848)
Analysis¡G
Crude oil prices have declined for three consecutive weeks, with the average jet fuel price in October down 0.1% year-on-year. Regarding exchange rates, the RMB central parity rate against the USD strengthened beyond the 7.1 mark last week, hitting an 11-month high. During the National Day holiday, demand reached a record high, driven by the dual factors of international route recovery and fare increases. Coupled with optimized supply-demand dynamics and cost improvements since the summer travel season, these factors have supported the recovery of airline profitability. In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an attributable net profit of HKD 141 million, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, primarily driven by growth in aircraft trading revenue and lower financing costs. The company also announced an interim dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, with a stable payout ratio, highlighting its earnings resilience. As of the end of June, the company owned 151 aircraft in its fleet (89% of which were high-liquidity narrow-body aircraft), with a utilization rate maintained at 100% (excluding one aircraft related to Russian assets). An order book of 114 aircraft provides support for long-term growth.
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $4.53, Target Price: $4.98, Cut Loss Price: $4.31



Minth Group (425.HK) - Battery Box Becomes the Largest Business Segment

Company Profile

Minth Group is a world-renowned supplier engaged in the design, manufacturing and sales of automotive interior and exterior trim and body structure parts. The domestic market share of its core products exceeds 30%. The company has production bases in China, the United States, Mexico, Thailand, Germany, Serbia and other countries, and its customers cover major vehicle companies in the market. Based on a variety of new materials and surface treatment technologies, in recent years the company has developed new electrified and smart product lines such as aluminum power battery boxes and smart front faces, forming a series of competitive terminal products.

Investment Summary

Strong Profit Growth Maintained in H1 2025, Net Profit Up Nearly 20%
Minth Group recorded revenue of RMB12.287 billion (RMB, the same below) in H1 2025, up 10.8% yoy; net profit attributable to the parent company reached RMB1.277 billion, equivalent to an increase of 19.5% yoy. The main drivers behind the profit growth include: 1) continued ramp-up of orders for NEV components such as battery boxes, leading to higher capacity utilisation; 2) incremental earnings contribution from capacity ramp-up at overseas production bases; 3) decline in unit transportation costs and favourable exchange rates. Meanwhile, the Company continued to advance its localisation strategy and implement effective cost control measures, resulting in lower expense ratios.

By region, domestic revenue was RMB4.31 billion, down 4.9% yoy, mainly due to the decline in market share of joint venture brands in China. International business remained strong, with revenue up 21.6% yoy to RMB7.98 billion, primarily driven by rapid growth in battery box and structural component businesses in the European market, as well as stable contributions from traditional exterior parts in international markets. The proportion of international business in total revenue rose by 5.2 ppts from 59.7% at the end of 2024 to 64.9%. The localisation strategy in North America, Europe and other regions has effectively reduced tariffs and geopolitical risks, while enhancing competitiveness in local markets.

Battery Box Becomes the Largest Business Segment
In H1, the Company's revenue from plastic parts, metal and trims, battery boxes, and aluminium parts reached RMB2.87/2.66/3.58/2.47 billion respectively, up 0.9%/4.7%/49.8%/4.1% yoy. Their respective shares of total revenue changed by -2.3/-1.3/+7.6/-1.3 ppts yoy, to 23.3%/21.6%/29.2%/20.1%.

During the review period, the Company achieved breakthroughs in its battery box and body chassis structure businesses, with a more balanced customer mix: it broke into the structural component business for Toyota Europe, and secured chassis structure orders from multiple Chinese clients such as Great Wall and Geely; entered the battery box business of Chery for the first time and secured repeat orders from BYD; made its first breakthrough in battery box structural parts for General Motors; and continued to expand its battery box business with Stellantis and Volkswagen. In the area of smart interior and exterior parts, the Company achieved breakthroughs in bumper assembly business with Ford North America and Renault, while continuing to secure orders from clients such as Toyota, Hyundai-Kia, Changan, and General Motors.

Profitability Continued to Improve Steadily

During the period, gross margin was approximately 28.3%, down 0.2 ppts yoy, mainly due to the rising contribution from the battery box business. The gross margins of the four major business segments were 26.1%, 28.1%, 23.0%, 32.6%, representing yoy changes of +2.0, +1.6, +2.4, -2.4 ppts, respectively. Among them, the battery box segment achieved a gross margin of 23%, moving closer to the 25% target. During the period, selling, administration and R&D expense ratios declined by 0.6, 0.1, and 0.5 ppts yoy respectively, lifting net profit margin by 0.8 ppts to 10.4%, indicating an improvement in the Company's profitability.

Operating cash flow rose by RMB 510 million yoy to RMB2.24 billion in H1 2025, reflecting sound cash flow conditions, which provide a solid basis for dividend payments and share buybacks. Capital expenditure stood at RMB902 million, down 17.5% yoy, as the Company has passed its peak investment phase and will focus on equipment upgrades and flexible transformation going forward. In H2, as several new overseas production lines continue to ramp up, overall gross margin is expected to see a slight improvement mom.

New Businesses and Emerging Segments Gearing Up

The Company is actively exploring new business segments and has made forward-looking deployments in areas such as eVTOL (electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft), wireless charging for electric vehicles, and bionic robots---including core components such as electronic skin, smart masks, integrated joints, bodies, and rotors. During the period, the Company partnered with leading enterprises including EHang and Zhiyuan Robotics. Some products have completed small-batch sample deliveries to multiple customers, and some have already secured mass production orders, with revenue contribution expected to begin in 2026/2027. With the rapid development of robotaxis and autonomous driving, the wireless charging industry is projected to experience explosive growth in 2026. At the same time, leveraging its battery box technology, the Company is also focusing on the development and implementation of AI liquid-cooling system-related products, aiming to capture opportunities in the rapidly growing artificial intelligence market.

Valuation

The company maintains stable overall operations, with continuous improvement in profitability, demonstrating strong risk resilience and growth adaptability. Meanwhile, the cultivation of new business areas and the expansion of new ventures are expected to foster a second growth curve, driving the company's sustainable development in the medium to long term.

We slightly revised the expected EPS for 2025/2026/2027 to 2.35/2.77/3.25 (from 2.43/2.89/3.30) yuan for the under expected GM.

We believe that it is reasonable to give the Company a valuation of 12.7/10.6/9.0 x P/E and 1.5/1.4/1.2x P/B for 2025/2026/2027, equivalent to target price of HK$ 32.6 and Accumulate rating.

P/E Band
"P/E
Source: Wind, Phillip Securities Hong Kong Research

Financials

"Financials"

(Closing price as at 17 October 2025)

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Recommendation on 21-10-2025
RecommendationAccumulate (Downgrade)
Price on Recommendation Date$ 29.480
Suggested purchase priceN/A
Target Price$ 32.600
Writer Info
ZhangJing
(Research Analyst)
Tel: (+ 86 21-6351 2939)
Email:
zhangjing@phillip.com.cn

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