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29 Jul, 2024 (Monday)



CHINA LONGYUAN(916)
Analysis¡G
The third quarter is expected to see a recovery in wind power installations, with demand set to kickstart soon. Recent catalysts have spurred more demand for wind power, leading to an upward trend in industry prosperity. In the short term, domestic offshore wind projects are commencing, with projects in Guangdong starting as early as August. Looking into the medium to long term, various deep-sea offshore projects are gradually being released across the country (Shanghai`s deep-sea offshore planning of 29.3 GW + Guangxi`s competitive projects of 6.5 GW), laying a foundation for demand in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Additionally, the European Central Bank`s interest rate cuts and decreases in raw material prices are driving marginal improvements in project internal rates of return. Given the substantial planned volume previously and existing local supply gaps, domestic submarine cable and tower manufacturers are expected to see an increase in export orders. CHN Energy is one of China`s earliest specialized companies in wind power development, maintaining its position as the world`s largest wind power operator since 2015. Currently, CHN Energy has evolved into a large comprehensive power generation group primarily focused on developing and operating new energy sources, including wind power, solar power, biomass, tidal, geothermal, and thermal power projects. Its business spans across 32 provinces and municipalities in China, as well as countries like Canada, South Africa, and Ukraine. As of the end of 2023, the company`s controlled installed capacity stands at 35,593.67 MW, with wind power accounting for 27,754.39 MW, thermal power for 1,875.00 MW, and other renewable energy sources like solar power at 5,964.28 MW.
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $7.26, Target Price: $8.00, Cut Loss Price: $6.55



Report Review of June 2024

Sectors:

TMT, Semiconductors, Consumer & Healthcare ¡]Eric Li¡^

TMT, Semiconductors, Consumer, Healthcare (Eric Li)

This month I released reports of Hengan (1044.HK).

For the year ended 31 December 2023 (FY2023), Hengan's revenue increased by 5.1% to RMB23,768mn, above market expectation. During the year, operating profit increased significantly by 38.6% to RMB3,978mn (FY2022: RMB2,869mn). Although the depreciation of the Renminbi against the US dollar and the HK dollar during the year resulted in an operating foreign exchange loss after tax of RMB150mn, the loss was significantly reduced by about 83.6% compared with the operating FX loss before tax of RMB901mn in 2022. Therefore, profit attributable to shareholders of the Company was RMB2,801mn (FY2022: RMB1,925mn), representing a significant yoy increase of 45.5%. Excluding the operating FX loss after tax, profit attributable to shareholders of the Company increased by 4.3% yoy, mainly reflecting the improvement in the company's gross profit margin as a result of the decline in the cost of wood pulp and upgrades of products. Basic EPS was RMB2.415 (FY2022: RMB1.657), with full-year dividend RMB1.40 per share, unchanged yoy.

During the year under review, raw material prices dropped in the second half of the year, leading to intensified market promotions and price competition. The decline in the price of wood pulp, the main raw material for tissue paper, in the second half of the year compared to the first half of the year, coupled with the robust growth in the company's upgraded products and premium product series resulted in a significant improvement in the gross profit of the tissue paper business. FY2023, the company's overall gross profit increased by 4.2% to RMB8,011mn (FY2022:RMB7,689mn). Although the gross profit margin was under pressure in the 1HFY2023, the overall gross profit margin for the full year still recorded at 33.7% (FY2022: 34.0%), almost consistent with last year. Gross profit the 2HFY2023 even significantly improved to 36.5% (2HFY2022: 32.8%). It is expected that in 2024, premium high margin products will continue to experience significant growth, leading to a continuous improvement in the gross profit margin.

Despite a challenging operating environment, Hengan leverages its strong comprehensive competitive advantages and effective profit-focused sales strategies to continue expanding its market share and further solidify its robust business resilience. The company's three core business segments¡Xtissue paper, sanitary napkins, and diapers¡Xhave maintained steady growth in revenue over the past two years. The decline in raw material prices in the second half of last year intensified industry marketing and price competition. However, the company prudently allocated promotional resources and continued to record significant growth in high-end, high-margin products. Gross profit margins are expected to remain stable. Hengan maintains a healthy financial condition with a significant improvement in its debt ratio to 69.8%, placing it in a net cash position.

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