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Investor Notes - Phillip Securities (HK) Ltd
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14 Jan, 2021 (Thursday)

            
CHINA EDU GROUP(839)
Analysis¡G
China Education Group (839) is primarily engaged in providing higher and vocational education with school network in China, Australia, and the United Kingdom including nine universities and professional schools in China, an accredited higher education institute in Sydney, Australia, and a US-UK dual degree awarding university in London, UK. Two of the Group`s education institutes have recently received approval from the Ministry of Education of the People`s Republic of China for conversion from an independent college into a full private university, namely Chongqing Institute of Foreign Studies and Guangzhou University Songtian College. The Group believes that upon conversion, there will be major development opportunity and the conversion will have a positive impact on future development. (I do not hold the above stock)
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $15.70, Target Price: $17.40, Cut Loss Price: $14.90


JD(9618)
Analysis¡G
The company is one of the three poles of China`s Internet retailers, positioning itself as a ¡§supply chain-based technology and service company. Dada`s listing has contributed 4 billion investment income to the company. Beside JD Health, the company also includes JD Digital, Several projects such as JD Logistics and JD Industrial Products Financing are expected to go public. These new businesses will expand JD`s growth space. In addition, the company`s investment plans delayed by the epidemic in the first half of the year will be released or concentrated in the second half of the year, such as JD Logistics, IT System and technology, fresh food, etc., in the long run, the company`s growth ability continues.
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $335, Target Price: $410, Cut Loss Price: $295



Archosaur Games (9990.HK) - Included in the stock connect, Strong game pipleline

Investment Summary

Archosaur Games was included in the stock connect on 7th of December

The Hang Seng Index Co., Ltd. announced on November 13, 2020 that Archosaur Games will be added to the Hang Seng Technology Index on December 7. On the same day, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that the company will be included in the Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong Index, Hang Seng Stock Connect Hong Kong MidCap & SmallCap Index, and Hang Seng SCHK Mainland China Companies Index. On December 7, the company was officially included in the stock connect, we believe this may have a boost to the liquidity of the company's stocks. Further, this is likely to introduce mainland investors to contribute the company's revaluation as well as increasing the market's awareness of the company's investment thesis. We believe the inclusion in stock connect will benefit the trend of the company's stock price in future.

Solid performance of Under the Firmament (ÂE¹Ï¤§¤U)

Under the Firmament (ÂE¹Ï¤§¤U) was launched on the 21th of October. Under the Firmament (ÂE¹Ï¤§¤U) is the first mobile SLG game powered by the Unreal Engine 4. Unreal Engine 4 technology has broken through the gorgeous visual effects that many SLG games could not display before and has created a real and magnificent Three Kingdoms War setting for users. At the beginning of the launch, the game has maintained the top 10 in the IOS strategy game best-selling rankings, and currently maintains stably in the top 40 and top 15 on the IOS game best-selling rankings and the IOS strategy games best-selling rankings, respectively. In addition, according to gamma data, the game's first month gross billing exceeded RMB 300 million, and becomes the company's sixth game with gross billing over the RMB 100 million mark in the first month of launching. Currently, the game's TapTap score is 7.4, with over 360k followers on TapTap platform. The overall performance of Under the Firmament (ÂE¹Ï¤§¤U) is in line with our previous expectation. As the company's 1st ever self-developed SLG game, the solid performance it has achieved can fully demonstrate the company's strong R&D capabilities as well as the outstanding distribution strategy implemented by Tencent, the sole distributor of the game in China region. Even though SLG games` gross billing tend to lack the explosion in the early stage, but SLG games tend to have longer life cycles and stable gross-billings in long term, coupled up with the company's new upgraded version of the game launched in December, we expect Under the Firmament (ÂE¹Ï¤§¤U) can still contribute significant gross-billings for the company in 2021.

The company's rich and diverse game reserves are expected to promote high growth in the coming years

Up to now, the company has a total of 7 games in reserve, including 4 MMORPGs, 2 SLGs and a female-oriented game. In terms of the scheduled timeline, three games will be launched in 2021, including The New World (¹Ú·Q·s¤j³°), Noah's Heart (¿Õ¨È¤§¤ß) and Sango Heros (¤T°ê¸s­^¶Ç). The New World (¹Ú·Q·s¤j³°) was initially scheduled to be launched in 20Q4, however the timeline has been delayed as a result of the later-than-expected game approval (ª©¸¹) received. Now the launching of the game has been delayed to 21Q1. The New World (¹Ú·Q·s¤j³°) is the company's first turn-based game based on Unreal Engine 4. It has achieved fine details in character modeling, map scenes and other fine arts, bringing players a refreshing gaming experience. According to market news, due to the characteristics of Unreal Engine 4, this game is very likely to be one of the most expensive turn-based MMORPG games currently known. The game's File-deleting public beta has begun on 19th of November. Up to now, the game has a score of 8.8 on the TapTap platform, and the number of reservations exceeds 80,000. Taking into account the company's rich game reserves and the unique graphic characteristics of the reserved games, the company's future growth is looking promising.

Valuation and investment thesis

We continue to be optimistic about the company's strong R&D capabilities and its long-term and in-depth partnership with Tencent. However, due to the delayed launch of Under the Firmament (ÂE¹Ï¤§¤U) and The New World (¹Ú·Q·s¤j³°), we have lowered the company's 2020 forecast revenue to RMB 1.65 billion, adjusted NP to RMB 585 million and adjusted EPS to RMB 0.72, while maintaining the previous forecast on 2021 and 2022. Taking into account the downgrade in valuation of the sector (especially the mid-tier game companies), we have lowered the company's 2021 targeted PE to 20x, TP at HKD 30.60 (-8.9%), with 2020/2021/2022 adjusted PE at 37.5x/20.0x/14.8x. We maintain ¡§BUY¡¨ rating. (Market closing price as of 11th Jan) (exchange rate: RMB 0.88/HKD)

Risk

1) The tightening on Game regulations 2) The Games underperform comparing to expectation 3) Games launching are delayed due to unexpected reasons

Financial Statements

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Recommendation on 14-1-2021
RecommendationBuy
Price on Recommendation Date$ 19.940
Suggested purchase priceN/A
Target Price$ 30.600
Writer Info
Kevin Chiu
(Research Analyst)
Tel: +852 2277 6514
Email:
kevinchiu@phillip.com.hk

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