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22 Jun, 2016 (Wednesday)


XINHUA WINSHARE(811)
Analysis¡G
Xinhua Winshare is mainly engaged in publishing and distribution of publication and relative products in mainland China. In 2015, the company recorded sales revenue of RMB5.583 billion, and the profit for the year of RMB620 million, up 5.76% and 0.55% Y-o-Y, respectively. At present, the company is exerting itself in strategic transformation and building itself into a comprehensive cultural media group offering modern service in all industrial chains. On one hand, it will take advantage of its capital to enhance M&A and cooperation, expand the business area, strengthen the major publication and distribution businesses and increase the marketing share. On the other hand, the company put much effort in developing digital publication and e-commerce, and implementing the ¡§double-channel¡¨ strategy of combining the offline channels with the online platform. The listing of the company on A shares is advancing steadily. By then the company will become the only one publishing company listed both on A and H shares. On the basis of robust fundamentals and sustainable dividends distribution ability, we give the Company an estimation of 12x PE in 2016, and the target price is HKD8.4. Besides, ¡§Accumulate¡¨ is given.
Strategy¡G
Buy-in Price: $8.03, Target Price: $8.40, Cut Loss Price: $6.80


Dongfeng (489.HK) - Weighting of SUV continued to lift

-Dongfeng's total revenue in 2015 increased by 15% according to proportionate consolidation method. The increase was a result of the changes in consolidated statement and the revenue growth due to the launch of new passenger vehicles. The overall cost growth outweighed the revenue growth, while integrated gross profit margin decreased from last year's 21% to 18.5%, down 2.5 percentage points.

-The profit attributable to shareholders drooped by 19% to RMB6.885 billion owing to the lack of last year's one-time gain of RMB2.3 billion from the acquisition of equity in PSA Group. With such influence excluded, the net profit in 2015 slightly grew by about 3.5%.

-Dongfeng 's total sale of vehicles in 2015 recorded a YoY increase of 3.8% to 2.867 million, with passenger vehicles up by 7.8% to 2.522 million, and commercial vehicles down by 18.6% to 345,000. Sales of its joint ventures, including Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Honda and Dongfeng Peugeot Citroen, recorded a YoY growth of 5% to 1 million, 32% to 406,000 and 1% to 710,000, respectively. With respect to its own brands, the sales of Dongfeng Liuzhou Motor's passenger vehicles witnessed a YoY increase of 4% to 250,000 while that of Dongfeng Passenger Vehicle Company soared by 26% to 100,000.

-In accordance with domestic consumption trends, Dongfeng launched more SUV models to further optimize the sales structure. The sales of SUV soared by 87.6% to 930,000, accounting for 37% of all passenger vehicles sold. In 2016, Dongfeng Motor Group will launch 14 all-new or updated models, 2 more than last year. In 2017 the figure is expected to reach 15-16, in which SUVs will account for about a half. We estimate that SUVs remain the key driver for the sales of passenger vehicles.

Investment Thesis

As a large-sized SOE, the run-in period caused by the recent change of management level, and probable currency exchange loss, are the major risks faced by Dongfeng in short term. In accordance with the latest data, we adjust the company's EPS to RMB1.49 and RMB1.61 in 2016/2017, respectively, and target price to HK$11.2, equivalent to 6.3/5.9x P/E ratio in 2016/2017. The "Buy" rating is given.

Financials

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Recommendation on 22-6-2016
RecommendationBUY
Price on Recommendation Date$ 8.240
Suggested purchase priceN/A
Target Price$ 11.200
Writer Info
Zhang Jing
(Research Analyst)
Tel: (+ 86 51699400-103)
Email:
zhangjing@phillip.com.cn

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Phillip Research - Hong Kong ½÷¥ß¬ã¨s³¡ ¡V ­»´ä¤Î¤¤°ê
Company Stock Code Last Update Suggestion Target Price Price on Recom
Mainland Financial Xingyu Chen (86) 2151698900-105chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn
Guangdong Land Holdings12418/04/2016Buy 3.152.3
China Merchants Bank396816/03/2016Buy 2215.96
Transportation and Automobiles Zhang Jing (86) 2151699200-103zhangjing@phillip.com.cn
Dongfeng48922/06/2016BUY11.200.000
SAIC Motor60010414/06/2016BUY24.5520.32
Mainland Property Geng Chen (86) 2151699400-107chengeng@phillip.com.cn
Poly Property60004807/06/2016Buy11.88.51
KERRY LOG NET63618/05/2016No Rating10.78
Insurance Xingyu Chen (86) 2151699400-105chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn
Media & Publishing Research Department (+ 86 21 51699400-107)research@phillip.com.cn
NetDragon77716/06/2016Buy28.422.9
NetDragon77715/06/2016Buy28.422.9
Pharmaceutical Fan Guohe  (+ 86 21 51699400-110)fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
Bloomage BioTechnology96313/06/2016Buy 18.513.48
Properties  
LESSO212823/09/2015Buy7.96.02
FORTUNE REIT77814/10/2014Accumulate7.326.92
Local Financials Xingyu Chen (86) 2151698900-105chenxingyu@phillip.com.cn
HSBC509/08/2013Accumulate100.484.25
HSBC Holdings PLC000509/05/2013Accumulate9587.7
Health & Personal Care Fan Guohe  (+ 86 21 51699400-110)fanguohe@phillip.com.cn
Shanghai Haohai Biological Technology682606/06/2016Buy48.1839.55
Fosun Pharma219616/05/2016Accumulate22.8619.4
Hotels and Entertainment Geng Chen (86) 2151699400-107chengeng@phillip.com.cn
Poly Culture363618/03/2016Accumulate 19.517.1
CUTC60035808/03/2016N/A10.41
New Energy  
Yunnan Water683923/05/2016Buy5.73.94
Grandblue ENV60032320/04/2016Buy 17.513.11
Food, Beverage and Retail  
Peak Sport196813/05/2016Buy2.251.83
Kweichow Moutai60051922/03/2016Buy 280226
Telecommunications  
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation98130/05/2016Buy0.820.64
ZTT60052224/05/2016Accumulate24.1620.73
Utilities Research Department (86) 21 51699400-110research@phillip.com.cn
Huaneng Renewables95820/06/2016Buy 32.49
Huaneng Renewables95817/06/2016Buy 32.49
Oil and Gas Geng Chen (86) 2151699400-107chengeng@phillip.com.cn
TSC GROUP20628/07/2015Buy2.82.11
SPT Energy125124/02/2015Reduce1.51.74
Software & Service  
Goldpac Group331518/02/2015N/A4.77
IGG800221/11/2014Accumulate3.953.44

Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Limited and/or its affiliates ( the ¡§Group¡¨) believe to be accurate. The Group does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The Group (or its employees) may have interests in relevant investment products. For details of different products¡¦ risks, please view the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk.

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